With only weeks to go before the local elections in Victoria, I have just crunched the preferences for the Surf Coast Shire poll.
Basically I've added up all the preferences for each candidate and summed them on a spreadsheet.
Generally the lower the number the better the chance of getting elected.
Local copper Brian McKiterick has come in with a total of 97, and he stands a really good chance of getting in, even if his primary vote is low.
Jim Tutt (99) looks good on the surface, but he is getting preferences from several weak candidates. Tutt will probably dominate the oldie vote in Anglesea and get in anyway. Especially if he spends as much cash on this election as he did on the last poll.
Joe Remenyi had the third lowest total of 103, but I personally think he has done the best deal by far. Joe is in every candidates top 9. He'd have to bomb out big-time on primary votes not to get in.
Ron Humphrey's stooge candidate Elizabeth Whapshott (141) has got the worst preferences by far. She only has five top 9 preferences and she has virtually no chance of getting in.
John Foss (141) didn't fare much better, but he does get in nine candidates top 9.
Michael Lewis (106) is sitting pretty with 13 top nine selections. His own preference decisions, are politically all over the place and he will be a bit of a wild card.
Libby Mears, Rodney Foord, Libby Coker, and Simon Northeast have all done reasonably well on the preference front.
The current Mayor, Dean Webster (139) has been targetted big time by the conservatives. He still should get in on a strong primary vote.
Garry Kerr (141) and only six top 9s won't be getting in if he has to rely on preferences.
Rose Hodge and Lindsay Schroeter have both struggled when it comes to preferences but both have a substantial core group of supporters. Schroeter will probably get back Livingstone's conservative Winchelsea constituents and he should get back in.
And finally you've got Ron Humphrey who has bagged a record 7 last preferences. Half the field have put Ron last. Personally I think this is a travesty. I'm voting for Ron, purely for the fact that he offers such great comedic material. Who else is going to suggest terrorists could be financially supporting council candidates? Who else is going to leak info to the papers with his name and fax number on the top of the page? Who else is going to campaign for the re-introduction of mayoral robes?
AND WHO ELSE IS GOING TO BULLSHIT ABOUT NOT RUNNING ON A TICKET?
Let's compare Ron's and Whapshott's preferences.
Both preferenced McKinterick 9, Mears 14, Lewis 8, Foss 12, Tutt 3, Northeast 11, Hodge 15, Webster 13 and Coker 10. Ron put Whapshott number 2 on his ticket and Whapshott returned the favour to Ron. The only other differences were Remenyi 6/7 and Foord 7/6 and Schroeter 4/5 and Kerr 5/4.
I think "Talking out your arse" sums up Ron's "no ticket" claim perfectly.
Monday, November 03, 2008
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7 comments:
Here's hoping the voters of Surf coast Shire show the same diligence as so many of the candidates, and place Ron last.
Any thoughts on whether the article in today's Addy will help or hinder his cause?
For what it's worth, this is how I see the election results going.
It appears that I have misjudged Cr Humphrey, over the last couple of years, he has been extremely deft in developing a love/hate relationship with elements within the community, his detractors, are well and truly in the minority.
I feel that he will be elected this time, without the need to go to second or more preferences.
Here's my pick for the Surf Coast Election results
Humphrey, Tutt, Schroeter,McKiterick, Mears,Coker, Kerr,NorthEast,Remenyi will be elected.
This is based on the indication of 2nd and 3rd preferences and the primary vote that Mears, Foss, Hodge, Webster and Remenyi got at the 2004 elections, and I see no reason for them to improve their position. Humphrey has done a lot of work with the media over the past four years and that's why I believe that he will improve his position from the 2004 Election results. Secondly Hodge and Webster recieved no second preferences and it is my view that they be will be eliminated late in the distribution of preferences. Their is also a strong possibility that Ron's stooge "as you called her", Wapshott, will out Poll Remenyi and be elected nineth. Preferences listed from 9-15 will bear no impact on the election results. It is also my opinion that the gang of four should have given greater consideration to their 2nd and third preferences.
H Shalders
Welcome harry,
Interesting analysis. I also believe Ron will get re-elected. Not because he deserved it, but because local elections are largely about name recognition.
Yes Ron has done a lot of work in the media. This of course means FA when it's based on BS and his "work in the media" doesn't actually achieve anything other than division in the council.
Whapshott's got no chance. She a stooge with poor preferences.
Kerr's only hope is if get's in off the back of Tutt and Humphrey.I
Here is my prediction as of 8/11.
Hodge, Mears, Tutt, Dean, McKinterick, Humphrey, Remenyi, Northeast, Schroeter.
I Will make another one just before the polls.
I feel that it extremely unlikely that Webster will be re-elected.
Foord will take votes from Websters voter base in Belbrae, and pass them on to Remenyi. Webster will find it difficult to find enough developers, to be re-elected. I still believe that Hodge will also struggle to gain enough support, given that McKiterick will win over her traditional voter base, such as schools. Both these candidates will not do well outside Torquay and they are not liked in Anglesea, Lorne and Winchelsea. Both are in trouble.
Here's my take on the order of eliminations, based on my estimates of primary votes.
Lewis to Mckiterick
Foord to Remenyi
Foss to Mears
Webster to Coker
Wapshott to Kerr
Hodge to Northeast
My two doubtfull ones are Mears, because she has to poll well, and above Foss and Northeast, and that might prove difficult to do.
Also Hodge, as she will need to poll well on primaries, however, I believe Mc Kiterick will steal her votes, and therefore she will struggle.
So here we are. Let's stick them on the fridge and see who's closest.
Whatever happens though, it should be an interesting election tally to watch, not only for us, but other council regions adjacent who have upcoming elections ?
"Stick em on the fridge". I think we should both get another go a couple of days before the vote.
I think Whapshot will go first. Kerr or Ford will struggle too. I think Foss was a strong councillor who worked hard and made some really good decisions, but his vote will be cannabilised by Northeast.
Hodge should have enough primaries to get in and the same goes for Tutt and Humphrey. Mears' number one problem is the multile Airey's-based candidates, but she was by far the most popular mayor in the last four years so I'm tipping she will make it. She appeals to all demographics.
Coker is working very hard at getting elected, but I can't see her getting enough primary votes.
Remenyi should get in on prefs.
The big wild card is $$$. If the bloke who sponsored the Save the Surf Coast team decides to throw thousands of dollars around like last time, all my predictions are off.
PS I don't agree with your opinion that Ron's detractors are a minority. I personally believe that most residents see him as a divisive fool. not that that means he can't get a quota.
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